We can see a number of trends that could well be repeated
To consider how the market will develop over the next couple of years it is worth looking back at how the market in Europe developed following the financial crisis. In very broad terms NPLs in the banking system peaked at around €1.2 trillion but by the end of 2019 were roughly half that. Since 2011 PwC has tracked every portfolio trade on the market - our data shows that NPLs with a face value of around €700bn have traded as portfolio transactions. Our estimate for last year is that even with the massive slowdown in transactions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, around €50bn traded.
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